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Why Celtic will beat Udinese

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Europa League Celtic newsTonight we have a chance to put our recent European woes behind us when we play Udinese. There is reason to be optimistic for this game.

If you have read my previous posts on here you will know that I have suggested that Udinese is our best chance of getting something from this group.

Their main threat is Antonio Di Natale, but without him they don’t score a lot of goals. Di Natale is now being rested for this game and I think this means they are content with a draw. I would also think that most opposing coaches would fancy their chances of beating us at their stadium and would be happy with a point at Celtic Park.

Four points from the home and away league almost guarantees they would finish ahead of us. So to me it looks like Udinese will sit back and maybe hit us on the counter but they are overlooking the Fortress Paradise effect.

Over the years we have hosted the elite of Europe at Celtic Park and created many memorable nights in the process. When Martin O’Neill took over as boss in 2000, he initiated Fortress Paradise where we would not only become formidable at home in European competition, but we would win.

During his tenure we only lost one game to Barcelona while we defeated the likes of Juventus, Lyon and of course Barca themselves in the 2003-04 Uefa Cup. By the end of 2005 Celtic Park was famous for being a place no team in Europe wanted to play. Gordon Strachan continued this winning ethos and Manchester Utd and AC Milan joined the list of great teams to lose here.

We had a bad season under Tony Mowbray’s ill-fated campaign and lost three at home, ironically though he managed to have the best away record of a Celtic manager in this time frame with a win away to Dinamo Moscow and draws with Hamburg and Rapid Vienna.

Neil Lennon however has us getting positive results again, although the standard of opposition has not been as high, two wins and a draw has been a good start. I feel that will continue tonight.

Home record since 2000

Martin O’Neill 2000-05 PLD 26 W 19 L 01 D 06 Win% 73 

Gordon Strachan 2005-09 PLD 12 W 08 L 01 D 03 Win% 66 

Tony Mowbray 2009-10 PLD 05 W 01 L 03 D 01 Win% 20 

Neil Lennon 2010-12 PLD 03 W 02 L 00 D 01 Win% 66 

Total 2000-12 PLD 46 W 30 L 05 D 11 Win% 65 

Another thing to consider is that there is not as much pressure on the Bhoys as there was during the FC Sion game. Even with a defeat tonight there is still a chance to get through and no one is expecting much anyway.

I have a feeling, call it optimism if you want, that Fortress Paradise will be important tonight and we will get a win out of this.

We have entertained better teams than Udinese before and sent them home empty handed, Barcelona twice, Arsenal, Hamburg and Dinamo Moscow are the only teams to beat us a Celtic Park since 2000. I can’t see Udinese joining that list when they don’t even have a striker playing for them.

Predictions

Celtic 1-0 Udinese

Stade Rennes 1-1 Athletico Madrid

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  • john says:

    I admire your optimism Paul. I just wish I had a little of it.

    I see where you get the idea that they might be content with a draw and that is why thay have left Di Natale at home.

    Another, just as plausible argument, is that they think so little of Celtic that they think they can win without their best players.

    You mention the glorious victories of 7/8 years ago but look at the team then and compare it with the team we have now. Never mind as the song says ‘win, lose or draw’, regardless.

  • Joe McHugh says:

    While we don’t have the quality of the Seville era the side of five years ago achieved better Champions League results.

    Some of Celtic’s best results in recent seasons have been achieved with Lee Naylor, Paul Telfer, Jiri Jaroski and Kenny Miller.

    The biggest difference is in goals, Artur Boruc at his best was worth a few Champions League points, Fraser Forster hasn’t approached that sort of form which gives the whole team a lift.

  • david deans says:

    Its all down to whether Neil Lennon picks the correct team and tactics. In this department he has failed time and time again. I really hope he gets it right tonight.

    We must play at a very high tempo and go for it. Forget caution and giving them respect,we must push forward and attack in waves and please dont play Samaras.

  • stephen says:

    Paul, what have you been taking? you’re the most optimistic fan i’ve ever seen write an article.

    Udinese it seems are fielding a reserve team, that’s our main hope of a result.

    This tournament is nothing for celtic this season, don’t think the players are interested to be honest mate.

    • Paul Morgan says:

      I hear you Stephen, maybe it is just blind optimism. As for Celtic players not caring about this competition, I think this is the only place they can put themselves in the shop window, so to speak. Believe me they want to win this game. Another question you have to ask yourself is how good is the Serie A at the minute. Palermo got knocked out of Europe by a swiss team, Udinese lost to a poor Arsenal team, Inter lost at home to a Turkish team. Napoli and AC Milan have started well, but do you really see them making it to the Quarter Finals?

      I think if we play 4-4-2, which is what they are use too and have Stokes and Hooper up front we have more than a decent chance. We score goals at home and I think we will tonight, but I don’t know who will score for them even against our dodgy defence. They are relying on midfielders to be strikers.

  • James 78 says:

    End of the day, as they say, the best form of defence is attack. We know this team, if the correct personnel is picked, can perform to a desent standard. Lets hope Lenny picks the people’s team i.e.Hooper & STOKES and hopefully Matthews over Wilson and lets the front 6 do their thing in the last third and take all 3 pts convincingly. (it would be nice to see Bangura, Wanyama and Paddy get a good run out tonight.)

    Its safe to say its a bonus that Udinese are prioritising their fixtures but CFC should still be beating most European teams at home IMO and I dont see why not, we take 9 pts from our home matches.

    C’mon Celts, lets have a right go tonight and get the winning mentality back onboard.

    HH 1NL YNWA

  • Willie Aitkenhead says:

    I’ll be doing handstands if we can win this tie….I certainly don’t see it as being our EASIEST tie….still think Ath. Madrid are very poor defensively and we can take something from them. I watched Udinese rip Arsenal apart but somehow managed to lose the tie.

    Leaving out the main striker is no big deal to an Italian side away from home. I note you still hold the Juventus game in high regard, yet they left out EIGHT players and we still struggled to beat them. So Udinese leave out one…we have several first choice players missing. Clearly they will settle for a draw or a breakaway goal if it comes along. I think similar to Bayern they will sit back & soak up whatever pressure we can create (hopefully not long useless punts up the middle). A dead ball situation is our best bet and hope the defence don’t go to sleep to lose a stupid goal.

    I expect a draw but hope for more.

    No decent left back, Dan at centre of defence…thank god they didn’t bring the goalscorer !!!

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