How Celtic’s Champions League co-efficient adds up
With the draw for our first Champions League qualifier just a week away I thought it would be a good time to look at our coefficient and try to explain how it works. Currently we lie 62nd in the rankings with 37.538 points. These points were boosted largely by our successful run in the Champions League last season. We improved from nearly 5 points from 32.728 the season before.
Here is how those 37.538 points are worked out.
12-13 16.860 pts
11-12 5.550 pts
10-11 2.220 pts
09-10 5.533 pts
08-09 7.375 pts
Total 37.538 pts
As you can see it is an accumulative of the last 5 years. It is always a rolling 5 year period, so after this season the points earned in 08-09 will be dropped and the points earned this season will be added. Here is a breakdown of how we got the 16.860 points from last season.
4.860 pts 20% of league association coefficient
1 pt Benfica Home Draw
2 pts Spartak Away Win
2 Pts Barca Home Win
2 pts Spartak Home Win
5 pts knocked out of last 16
16.860 total pts
Most of our points earned were by winning games in the group stage. It is interesting that you get the same amount of points to win a Champions’ League game as you do to win a Europa League game. This is why Newcastle (18.285), Spurs (19.285), Lazio (20.883) and Fenerbache (24.040) collected more points than us last year even though they never played in the Champions League and only one of them progressed further than the Quarter Finals. Every win gets you 2 points regardless of the competition.
Unfortunately, even if we do qualify for the Champions’ League Group Stages, 37.538 will probably not be enough to get us out of pot 4. There are already 22 teams automatically qualified with higher points. That means only 2 teams from Lyon, Zenit, Arsenal, AC, Schalke, PSV, Metalist, Fenerbache, Basel or Bate Borisov need to qualify to consign us to the bottom pot.
List of last teams to qualify for Pot 3 over last 5 years
12-13 Galatasaray 38.310
11-12 Bate Borisov 23.216
10-11 Spartak Moscow 33.758
09-10 Besiktas 32.445
08-09 Fenerbahce 51.469
37.538 points would have got us into Pot 3 in 3 of the last 5 years. We should be aiming to break 40 points after this season to help our chances of a better draw in future. That means we need to collect at least 10 points this year. How can we achieve this?
After next season we will lose 7.375 points from the 08-09 season. If we lose in the second qualifying round we are still guaranteed 20% of or league association points and 1 point for losing. It would roughly be about 4 points. Getting into the Champions League will guarantee us 7 points which will keep us where we are, whereas qualifying for the Europa group stage will guarantee 5 points.
Obviously we all want Champions League football for the money, glamour etc but I believe we would help our coefficient with a run in the Europa League group stages. We would be a higher seed in the Europa League and would have an easier task getting the wins(2 pts) needed to improve the coefficient which would then help us in future Champions League campaigns. Still I personally would prefer the Champs.
To get 10 pts we need at least a win and a draw in the Champions’ League Group Stages or 2 wins and a draw in the Europa League Group Stages. Of course there is no guarantee we will qualify for either with us having 3 qualifying rounds due to the Scottish League dropping to 18th in the Rankings, but I am confident we will.
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Please add your thoughts below- would a highly successful Europa League group campaign and progress compensate for losing out in the final Champions League qualifier?