Death, Taxes and Celtic winning the Scottish Premier League; it’s that time of year again where Celtic fans begin wondering ‘when’, rather than if, as the Bhoys march towards yet another SPL title.
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Beyond the size of a Celtic Scottish Premiership lead, and how their spread betting prices fluctuate here, there are other ways that Bhoys fans can judge the likelihood of the club’s continued success. As ever, Celtic boast the league’s strongest attack and the meanest defence, and though their mantle as the league’s entertainers on home turf is under challenge from Aberdeen, there remains no contest in the home form table.
As of the week beginning 25 February, both Aberdeen and Celtic had a total goals-per-match average of 3.3, from 14 league matches (respectively) at Pittodrie and Parkhead. However, the difference in form across 14 home games stood thus:
• Celtic:
– Goals For: 41
– Goals Against: 5
• Aberdeen:
– Goals For: 27
– Goals Against: 19
The contrast between the teams is quite staggering when put in these concise terms. Though Aberdeen are always the favourites outside the Old Firm to win the title, the men from the granite city are conceding far too many home goals to be considered anywhere near a threat to Celtic’s mantle as Scotland’s finest.
While Rangers are much closer to Celtic when it comes to making sure the goals go in at the right end in home games, both the old enemy and Aberdeen have far less in the way of fighting spirit on the occasions they go in level at half-time in a home match. As the ‘big three’ of Scotland approached the final matchday of February, Rangers and Aberdeen stood as just two of three teams yet to win a home match after being level at half-time. Celtic, meanwhile, had won all four matches in that category.
Given these ‘half-time vs full-time’ stats for home games, it is clear to see that ‘lesser’ teams can go to Ibrox or Pittodrie and sit tight to get the occasional result. That is obviously not the case at Parkhead, even if visiting teams do manage to maintain a level scoreline until the break. Again, yet another sign of just how far Rangers and Aberdeen have yet to go before so much as thinking about the SPL trophy.
Getting Personal
When it comes to the players, Celtic’s main men dominate utterly, and starting with the goalkeepers, Craig Gordon is showing no signs of slowing down. Though Liam Kelly of Livingston has topped the clean sheet charts for several weeks, his rate of clean sheets pales against that of Gordon – and his for-now understudy in the form of Scott Bain.
Rangers’ Allan McGregor also ended February ahead of Gordon in the clean sheets column, but again, the rate was inferior – and will likely remain so until the end of the season.
At the business end of the pitch, Odsonne Edouard remains locked in a battle with Alfredo Morelos (Rangers) and Sam Cosgrove (Aberdeen). He has been on their tail all season, and the identity of the leading scorer is likely to fluctuate throughout the season. However, Edouard’s efficiency of minutes per-goal (110) is second only to Cosgrove (107), and it is likely to be between those two come the season’s end.
Partners in Crime
While a traditional strike partnership is largely seen as something belonging to a bygone era, there is no disputing that a good partnership can give a team a real fear factor. Celtic have two that lie inside the top-five: Tom Rogic and Kieran Tierney being providers, respectively, for James Forrest and Odsonne Edouard.
Naturally, Rangers have their own assist-kings, with Morelos’ partnerships alongside Daniel Candeias, Ryan Kent and James Tavernier occupying the top seven in terms of the most effective partnerships. That said, Morelos seems to be the only consistent recipient, meaning that Celtic are still the most multi-dimensional team out there.
Bhoys on Course to Retain Title
Years have passed with nothing remotely like a challenge, but the first cracks in Celtic’s perceived immortality are already starting to show. The most obvious of these, naturally, is the loss to Rangers on 29 December, which breathed new life into what seemed a formality of a title race, and temporarily turned Glasgow blue for the first time in nearly seven years.
However, though Rangers look like a renewed force under Steven Gerrard, that defeat proved to be a mere blip. Rangers are clearly not yet strong enough to capitalise on what could have been a seismic result. While Rangers have been busy failing to turn half-time home draws into important wins, the mighty Hoops won all league matches (other than the derby) between 19 December and 27 February, having also gone into their final fixture of February with a very healthy eight-point lead.
Once again, it’s ‘when’ rather than if, though the signs that Rodgers cannot rest easy are certainly there all the same, and 2019/20 is likely to provide a much more competitive title race should Aberdeen and Rangers retain their own star players.
