Celtic could face a first round Champions League qualifier in Sweden or Belarus as they attempt to reach the group phase of the competition.
With the three qualifying rounds reduced to one-off matches the element of risk is much greater although Neil Lennon’s side will have a couple of domestic matches under their belt unless Hearts have something to say.
The usual minnows will be included with UEFA tending to split the draw geographically although Linfield’s presence has seen Celtic left out of that split following the meetings between the two clubs in 2017.
The first two qualifying rounds will be played in successive midweeks before a three-week break for the third qualifier.
Celtic will be seeded to that stage and could be seeded for the Play Off round if they reach that far if any higher ranked clubs are knocked out.
That prospect is very likely with Celtic knocked out as seeds in the third round in the last two seasons by AEK Athens and Cluj.
1. With yesterday’s UEFA meeting finally giving us some details about how the Champions League will look in 20/21, it’s time to have a look at what Celtic might face in the qualifiers.
Warning. Contains a shit load of speculation to go alongside what we already know.
— Moravcik67 (@Moravcik67_) June 18, 2020
4. It wasn’t confirmed yesterday, but it’s highly likely that the normal seeding system will be used. Celtic are guaranteed to be seeded up to QR3.
We’re not yet guaranteed to be seeded in the playoff. I’ll come back to this later, as it’s now a bit more complicated that normal.
— Moravcik67 (@Moravcik67_) June 18, 2020
5. What follows is based current standings in each of the European leagues, and assumes that the seeded teams win each tie.
That never works out in reality, and will be less likely to this season – given the one-off games, and home advantage being down to luck.
— Moravcik67 (@Moravcik67_) June 18, 2020
6. It’s also based on the default access list that defines the round a team starts in. This can (and nearly always does) change depending on who wins the CL and EL the season before.
Again, I’ll come back to this later, as it’s far more complicated this season.
— Moravcik67 (@Moravcik67_) June 18, 2020
7. This is how the draw for QR1 might look. Teams in green have already qualified for the CL.
As you’d expect, it doesn’t look too bad. But everything in QR1-3 needs to be looked by considering that we might have to play any of these teams away from home in a one-off tie. pic.twitter.com/BLW7iTTVBJ
— Moravcik67 (@Moravcik67_) June 18, 2020
8. An away tie against the Sweden/Belarus champion looks toughest.
Cypriot champ Omonia Nicosia could become unseeded if the right combination of higher ranked clubs from Slovenia, Macedonia, Armenia & Albania win their leagues. It’s unlikely, but still possible.
— Moravcik67 (@Moravcik67_) June 18, 2020
9. Next up, QR2. Things start to get a little harder at this point. Cluj, Omonia and St Gallen would probably be the ones to avoid.
Again, an away draw could turn what would normally be considered straight forward into something a bit more tricky. pic.twitter.com/lLcUcec7LB
— Moravcik67 (@Moravcik67_) June 18, 2020
10. Important note! There’s 7 days between QR1 and QR2, so the draw for QR2 will almost certainly be made before QR1 is played.
It means teams can’t go from being unseeded to seeded after QR1 is played. Cluj, etc, would stay unseeded regardless of how many seeds lost in QR1.
— Moravcik67 (@Moravcik67_) June 18, 2020
11. QR3. Getting to the serious stuff now. None of them look particularly appealing if we have to play them away, so a home tie here could be so imporant.
There’s a decent chance at least some will have been knocked out in previous rounds, which might soften the round up a bit. pic.twitter.com/Vpp6kMHU1S
— Moravcik67 (@Moravcik67_) June 18, 2020
12. Note that there’s a 3 week gap between QR2 and QR3. This allows the QR3 draw to be made after QR2 is played – allowing a reshuffling of the seeds based on coefficient.
So any of the teams listed an unseeded here could become seeded if teams ranked above them are eliminated.
— Moravcik67 (@Moravcik67_) June 18, 2020
13. Finally, the playoff. Again, there are tough ties here. But at least it’s over two legs.
The QR3-PO games are played over successive weeks, so there draw for the PO will be made before QR3 plays. This again prevents clubs who would be unseeded from becoming seeded after QR3. pic.twitter.com/VR8JQwBCtK
— Moravcik67 (@Moravcik67_) June 18, 2020
15. Will Celtic be seeded in all rounds? At this point I’d say it’s pretty likely, but not certain.
Seeding is based on a club’s own coefficient. Higher coefficient = higher ranking = better chance of being seeded.
Celtic are ranked 43rd in Europe.
— Moravcik67 (@Moravcik67_) June 18, 2020
16. There are only 5 other clubs who are ranked above us and who could be in the Champions Route of qualifying – Ajax, Basel, Salzburg, Olympiacos and Copenhagen.
If 4 of them win their league and make the playoff then we’d be unseeded.
— Moravcik67 (@Moravcik67_) June 18, 2020
17. Salzburg and Olympiacos look good to win their league. Ajax will represent the Netherlands. Basel are 5pts back, and Copenhagen could be 11pts back later this evening.
So to be unseeded requires either Basel or Copenhagen to overturn their deficit, and all 4 to reach the PO.
— Moravcik67 (@Moravcik67_) June 18, 2020
