When the Champions League draw is made today it is far from random.
With the explosion of statistics and analytics in the game there is plenty going on beyond former players pulling balls out of different pots.
The seeding system used to be straight from the co-efficient table but that has changed in recent seasons to ensure that Pot 1 consists of league winners only plus the winners of the Champions League and Europa League.
Pot 2 really features a clutch of big names, non-champions but with three English sides, three Spanish sides plus Juventus and RB Leipzig on the surface it carries the biggest, most glamorous names.
One of the many stipulations from UEFA is that teams from the same country can’t be drawn together. When Manchester City are drawn it wipes out three possible Pot 2 opponents, similarly when Real Madrid come out it does the same with three Spanish sides.
On probability there is a strong chance that City will have a Spanish side in their group, likewise Real are more likely to have an English side than any other with each being a 3 out of 5 chance.
Possibly the groups to avoid if you are looking to progress although attractive for travelling fans.
Pot 3 is fairly random with only Portugal having two clubs, after that comes the also rans of Pot 4 with Celtic finally back involved.
Celtic Trends explains:
To summarise it would be ideal for Celtic to get Eintract Frankfurt from Pot 1, any one of three from Atletico Madrid, Juventus and Sevilla in Pot 2 and Shakhtar Donetsk from Pot 3.
I’ve left out Leipzig from the ones to get from Pot 2 as they can’t be drawn if Frankfurt are in the same group. If the team from Pot 1 is not Frankfurt or Bayern Munich then Leipzig would added to the ideal ones to get.
So Frankfurt, Sevilla and Shakhtar would be an ideal group.
It wouldn’t be great if Celtic were drawn with any one of four from Man City, PSG, Bayern Munich and Real Madrid in Pot 1, any one from four from Liverpool, Barcelona, Chelsea or Spurs in Pot 2 and any one from three from Inter Milan, Borussia Dortmund and Napoli in Pot 4.
If Man City in Pot 1 then it couldn’t be Liverpool, Chelsea or Spurs in Pot 2 and if Bayern Munch in Pot 1 it couldn’t be Borussia Dortmund in Pot 4.
So the worst group would possibly be PSG, Liverpool and Inter Milan. Although some of the more difficult ties may be the choice for some fans for the glamour of it or at least the away trip.
Once the draw is completed UEFA then go into intensive mode with TV firms to spread the fixtures out as evenly as possible with Celtic in for a split of Tuesday and Wednesday matches, home matches will almost certainly kick off at 8pm.
Matchday 1 is on September 6 and 7 with the groups concluding on November 1 and 2.
With no Cop 26 this year Celtic will avoid a 3.30pm Tuesday afternoon match unlike last season.